Canada’s 2025–2028 Immigration Levels Plan: A Structural Reset for Temporary and Permanent Residents

1. A New Strategic Direction: Sustainability Over Expansion

Canada’s 2025–2028 immigration plan marks a decisive shift from rapid expansion to sustainability. For the first time, the federal government has coordinated multi‑year targets for both permanent residents (PRs) and temporary residents (TRs). The overarching goal is to stabilize permanent immigration while substantially reducing temporary resident inflows.

2. Permanent Resident Admissions: Stability, Not Growth

The plan maintains PR admissions at historically strong but stable levels: 395,000 in 2025, and 380,000 annually from 2026 to 2028. Economic immigration—Express Entry, the Provincial Nominee Program, and related pathways—will continue to dominate the distribution. Increased provincial control and rising Francophone targets shape the PR landscape.

3. Temporary Resident Admissions: The Most Dramatic Shift

Temporary resident admissions face the largest reductions: from an estimated 670,000 in 2025 to approximately 370,000 by 2027–2028. International students and temporary foreign workers will see reduced approvals, stricter documentation standards, and more selective screening as Canada reins in high-volume temporary streams.

4. Transitioning from TR to PR Will Be More Competitive

While PR remains achievable, competition will rise. Stable PR levels combined with a reduced inflow of new temporary residents mean that applicants already in Canada—especially those with strong work experience, high language proficiency, and ties to in-demand occupations—will have an advantage. Strategic planning is now essential.

5. Targeted Supports for Those Already in Canada

The government will launch transitional programs including a one-time initiative to finalize 115,000 protected person applications and a two-year transition program for 33,000 skilled workers in key or rural sectors. These programs help targeted groups but do not offset the overall competitiveness of the system. The reality is that there is insufficient space in the new levels plan to accommodate all temporary residents in Canada hoping to convert to permanent residence.

6. The Implications for Employers: A More Difficult LMIA Landscape

Employers will face one of the most challenging labour market impact assessment (LMIA) environments seen in years. Reduced temporary resident admissions, tighter eligibility criteria and application scrutiny, with greater emphasis on demonstrated business need will shape hiring strategies.

6A. Effective Closure of the Low-Wage LMIA Stream

In many major metropolitan regions, access to the Low‑Wage LMIA Stream has become effectively closed due to high unemployment rates and regional restrictions. Employers who relied on low-wage foreign labour now face difficult decisions about whether they can transition to the High‑Wage Stream.

6B. Employers Must Decide Whether They Can Move to the High-Wage Stream

To remain eligible to hire foreign workers, employers must assess whether they can raise wages to meet high-wage thresholds. This often requires revisiting business models, salary structures, and financial planning to support LMIA-dependent roles. Even then, an LMIA application could be refused if the wages offered are incongruent with the median wage for the occupation.

6C. Renewals Must Start Early

With the LMIA environment tightening, employers must begin renewal planning 6–8 months before expiry. This includes assessing whether employees may qualify under new work permit categories or for work permit extensions under the new and more stringent criteria.

6D. Retention Is More Important Than Replacement

Because new foreign worker approvals will be limited, employers should prioritize retention: supporting PR pathways where possible, investing in employee development, and identifying long-term workforce solutions.

7. What Individuals Should Know

Applicants planning for permanent residence should focus on improving language scores, ensuring their annual tax returns are filed promptly, securing high-quality Canadian work experience, targeting in-demand occupations, and considering mobility to regions with better PR prospects. PR status will be achievable for flexible and well-positioned candidates.

8. Conclusion: A More Selective, More Structured Immigration System

Canada’s immigration system is moving toward a more selective and sustainability-focused model. PR admissions remain strong but stable, while temporary admissions

will decline dramatically. For both applicants and employers, proactive planning, strong documentation, and realistic expectations will be essential over the next several years.